HM had an embarrassing experience when his friend, a physicist, asked him about the Dunning-Kruger effect and he had to express ignorance. HM was embarrassed because this effect is in the same field in which HM’s interests lay. After learning about the effect, the relevance of the effect to the current phenomena known as Trump became evident.
There are two parts to the Dunning-Kruger effect. The first refers to the cognitive bias in which relatively unskilled persons suffer illusory superiority. The second part refers to a cognitive bias for highly skilled individuals to underestimate the relative competence of unskilled individuals and assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.
HM will address the second part first. A fundamental difficulty HM has in teaching is to overestimate what students do and can understand. HM is not implying that these students are stupid, although this might be the simplest explanation. However, it is the teacher’s responsibility to teach to the level of what the student can understand. As a result of repeated experience with students of a certain level, the teacher can and should identify the appropriate level to teach and proceed accordingly.
Dunning and Kruger were not the first to recognize this effect. Confucius said, “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.” Bertrand Russell said, “One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.” This statement reminds HM of the phrase, “Ignorance is bliss.” Charles Darwin wrote, “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.” Shakespearean “As You Like It” wrote “The Foole doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a Foole.”
Trump followers appear to be extremely confident in Trump. How anyone can be confident in Trump given the content of the previous Healthymemory blog posts is completely baffling to HM. But then, HM is assuming that Trump followers have knowledge that they don’t have.
It would be interesting to have discussion groups with Trump devotees. The objective of these discussions would not be to try to persuade them to change their opinion, but rather to discuss how the different branches of government work, the role of the Constitution and the Supreme Court. There would also be discussion regarding the economy, foreign trade, and the subtleties and intricacies of international relations.
I think the results of these discussion group would be extremely depressing. But they would also be informative.
Palatable, informational presentations might actually urge these followers to think and to invoke their System 2 processes. Arguing directly regarding the potential disaster Trump could cause the county will not work because people will become defensive. However, for those who can actually be induced to think might change their minds on their own.
There is some evidence that the Dunning Kruger Effect might be specific to western cultures. A number of studies using East Asian participants suggest that different social forces are at play in difference cultures. East Asians tend to underestimate their abilities and see underachievement as a chance to improve themselves and to get along with others. If only this attitude could be fostered in our culture.
Another Western culture showing the Dunning-Kruger Effect is Great Britain’s Brexit vote. The Prime Minister assumed that a reasoned discussion of the benefits from remaining in the EU versus the costs in leaving the EU would result in a vote to remain, but just the opposite occurred. One problem was that a reasoned discussion did not take place. Rather it became a rowdy political contest in which lies and misrepresentation were made. HM needs to bring Kahneman’s two process view of cognition into this discussion. Remember that System 1, intuition, is fast, emotional, and our default mode for processing. System 2, called reasoning, is slow and effortful. It became clear that remain arguments had the flavor of System 2 processing. They were well-reasoned and thought out and supported by data. Unfortunately, exit arguments smack primarily of System 1 processes that were largely emotional. They wanted to be British and they wanted to prevent immigration.
For more on the Dunning-Kruger effect and for more specific references see the Wikipedia.
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