Posts Tagged ‘Bill Gates’

Bill Gates’ Robot Tax Alone Won’t Save Jobs: Here’s What Will

March 10, 2017

The title of this post is identical to the title of an article by Sumit Paul-Choudhury in the 4 March  2017 issue of the New Scientist.   Bill Gates argued that we should raise the same amount of money by taxing robots as we would lose in payroll taxes from the humans they supplant.  Then this money could be directed towards more human-dependent jobs, such as caring for the young, old and sick.  EU legislators rejected just such a proposal due to lobbying efforts by the robotics industry.

The article makes the valid assertion that automation is the biggest challenge to employment in the 21st century.  Research has shown that far more jobs are lost to automation than to outsourcing.  Moreover, this will get worse as machines become ever more capable of doing human jobs—not just those involving physical labor, but ones involving thinking also.

The common argument from the robot revolution is that previous upheavals have always created new kinds of jobs to replace the ones that have gone extinct.  But previously when automation hit one sector, employees would decamp to other industries.  However, the sweep of machine learning means that many sectors are automating simultaneously.  So perhaps it’s not about how many jobs ar left after the machines are done taking their pick, but which ones.

The article suggests that the evidence might not be very satisfying.  The rise of the “gig economy”, in which algorithms direct low-skilled human workers.  Although this might be an employer’s dream, it is frequently an insecure, unfulfilling and sometimes exploitative grind for workers.

The article argues that to stop this, it’s employers that need to be convinced, not the people making the technology, but it will be difficult to convince the employers who have huge incentives to replace all-too-human workers with machines that never stop working and never get paid.

Although the article fails to mention this, there is the danger of extremely high unemployment, particularly among the well-educated and formerly  well-off.  There have been several previous healthy memory blog posts by HM in which he discusses the future he was offered in the 1950s.  In elementary school we were told that by today technological advances would vastly increase leisure time.  Bear in mind that in the 50s very few mothers worked.  Moreover, technology has advanced far more than anticipated.  So, why is everyone working so hard?  Where is this promised leisure?

Unfortunately modern economies are predicated on growth.  They must grow which requires people to purchase junk and to keep working.  These economies are running towards disaster.  People need to demand the leisure promised in the 50s.   Paul-Choudry’s article does suggest that a business friendly middle ground might be for governments to subsidize reductions in working hours, an approach that has fended off labour crises before.  HM thinks that Paul-Choudhury has vastly underestimated the dangers of job losses.  HM thinks that this is of a magnitude that will threaten the stability of society.  So the working week will need to be drastically shortened to 20 hours (See the Healthymemory Blog Post “More on Rest”).

There have been previous healthy memory blog posts on having a basic minimum income, which also will need to be passed.

The primary forces arguing for these changes are the risks of societal collapse.

However, people need to have a purpose (ikigai) in their lives.  They need to have eudaemonic not hedonic pursuits.  Eudaemonic pursuits build societies; hedonic pursuits destroy society.

© Douglas Griffith and healthymemory.wordpress.com, 2017. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Douglas Griffith and healthymemory.wordpress.com with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

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A Bridge to Brain Power

April 15, 2015

The title to this post is the title of an article in the March 2015 AARP Bulletin by Jon Saraceno.  Don’t let the source of this article lead you to believe that Bridge is only for retirees.  Bridge is indeed a bridge to to brain power for both the young and the old.  Perhaps the best endorsement for Bridge is that both Warren Buffet and Bill Gates are passionate devotees.

Playing bridge makes demands on all your cognitive resources.  First of all, one needs to learn how to bid and to communicate with one’s partner regarding the bidding.  Once the bid is set, the declarer’s partner, called the dummy. sets down her cards so everyone can see what she had.  Given this information the declarer needs to formulate a strategy for winning the hand.  He knows what cards the opponents have and he tries to make informed guesses as to who has what cards and how the suits are divided.  The defenders, seeing only the cards in dummy, needs to formulate a strategy to defeat the bid.  The first lead from the opponents provides hint of the strategy.  Once the hand starts, everyone except the dummy needs to keep track of what cards have been played and try to estimate who has which unplayed cards.  So bridge places strong demands on both long and short term memory, on the ability to strategize, and to strategize in a dynamic environment.  To do all this one needs a strong ability to focus.  The bottom line here is that Bridge challenges our cognitive resources and helps up build and maintain healthy memories.

There are a variety of learning resources, and one can play automated games so one is not embarrassed by one’s poor play.  The American Contract Bridge League, http://www.abcl.org, has a number of programs developed to make learning how to play Bridge simple.

They have a new Learn to Play Bridge software program, a learn as you play tutorial.

Free personal computer software programs, including Learn to Play Bridge I for beginners.

Learn Bridge in a Day?..a five hour course geared for rookies

All these programs are available at the American Contract Bridge League website, http://www.abcl.org.

Once you have reached the point of not being embarrassed or have developed a thick enough skin to not be embarrassed, then you can enjoy the benefits of social interaction.  Even if you are a poor player you can likely find a group of people at a beginning level.  I was a very poor player, yet some truly good players who played bridge competitively, managed to tolerate me.

You might have noted that I used the past tense with regard to myself.  Unfortunately, I engage in many activities that are cognitively exhausting, so my cognitive resources have been too exhausted for me to play.  However, I do plan to change that in the future, perhaps after I retire from my formal job.  Bridge provides both cognitive and social exercises that promote healthy memories.

© Douglas Griffith and healthymemory.wordpress.com, 2015. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Douglas Griffith and healthymemory.wordpress.com with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.